Richard Dron discusses US Election predictions

Am I the only one that thinks there is chance that Donald Trump actually might win in the US Election prediction? I don’t have a crystal ball, but even with Beyonce and Jay Z’s help I am just not sure Hillary Clinton can win this week’s US presidential elections.

I have to tell you, I was thrown a few months ago with the result of the EU referendum. But, was I in denial? Were the signs not there? I went to give a talk to our MSc Digital Marketering students about analysing social media and I was asked for a prediction. I said:

At the moment it looks like leave is well ahead but there will be a swing … there is always a swing!

I had the data in front of me, visualised. The conclusions were actually obvious, and I still couldn’t see it. My lesson from #brexit is quite simple. Don’t let your mind play tricks on you and believe only what you want to be true.

Do you know why I think that we need to prepare ourselves for another shock voting result from our friends from across the pond – here are my thoughts based on Social Network Analysis (SNA) research…

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